## Thursday, December 18, 2008

### Summer School in Logic and Formal Epistemology at CMU

## Wednesday, November 26, 2008

### ISIPTA Second Call for papers

ISIPTA '09 - 2nd CALL FOR PAPERS

=====================================

Your help with circulating this announcement locally is much

appreciated. Apologies for multiple postings.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

ISIPTA '09

6th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability:

Theories and Applications

Tuesday 14 to Saturday 18 July 2009

Durham University, Department of Mathematical Sciences

Durham, United Kingdom

http://www.sipta.org/isipta09

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The ISIPTA meetings are the primary international forum to present and discuss new results on the theories and applications of imprecise probability.

Imprecise probability is a generic term for the many mathematical and statistical models and methods, allowing us to measure chance or uncertainty without the restriction of sharp probabilities. These models include lower and upper expectations or previsions, interval-valued probabilities, sets of probability measures, belief functions, Choquet capacities, comparative probability orderings, fuzzy measures, possibility measures, plausibility measures, and sets of desirable gambles. Imprecise probability models are needed in inference and decision problems where the relevant information is scarce, vague or conflicting, and where preferences may be incomplete.

Symposium format

----------------

It is a tradition of the ISIPTA meetings that we try to avoid parallel sessions. Each accepted paper is to be presented both (i) in a plenary session, where we ask for a short introduction and sketch of the context and relevance of the paper; and (ii) in a poster session, where ample opportunity and time is given for detailed explanation and discussion.

For the 2009 meeting, we also invite posters without a paper. We hope to attract people who wish to present and discuss their work within the framework of the conference but whose results are not yet finalized, for instance, for practitioners who wish to discuss possibilities for applications in their field using imprecise probabilities, or for starting students. If you wish to present a poster without paper, you are invited to submit a one-page abstract of the work you intend to present. These abstracts will be made available at the conference and online.

Themes of the symposium

-----------------------

The symposium is open to contributions on all aspects of imprecise probability. But we particularly welcome contributions on imprecise probability in statistical inference and decision making.

Topics of interest include, but are not limited to:

- models of coherent imprecise assessments

- sets of probability measures, credal sets

- interval-valued probabilities

- upper and lower expectations or previsions

- non-additive set functions, and in particular Choquet capacities (and

Choquet integration), fuzzy measures, possibility measures, belief and

plausibility measures

- random sets

- rough sets

- comparative probability orderings

- qualitative reasoning about uncertainty

- imprecision in utilities and expected utilities

- limit laws for imprecise probabilities

- physical models of imprecise probability

- philosophical foundations for imprecise probabilities

- psychological models for imprecision and indeterminacy in probability

assessments

- elicitation techniques for imprecise probabilities

- robust statistics

- probabilistic bounding analysis

- data mining with imprecise probabilities

- dealing with missing data

- estimation and learning of imprecise probability models

- decision making with imprecise probabilities

- ambiguity aversion and economic models of imprecise probability

- uncertainty in financial markets

- algorithms for manipulating imprecise probabilities

- Dempster-Shafer theory

- information algebras and probabilistic argumentation systems

- probabilistic logic, propositional and first-order

- credal networks and other graphical models

- credal classification

- applications in statistics, economics, finance, management,

engineering, computer science and artificial intelligence,

psychology, philosophy and related fields.

Special sessions

----------------

In memory of Henry Kyburg and Pauline Coolen-Schrijner, two special sessions will be organized. The papers for these sessions will be selected by the steering committee.

Location

--------

ISIPTA '09 will be held at Durham University, Collingwood College, in Durham, United Kingdom. Collingwood College provides onsite ensuite accommodation. More information about Collingwood College can be found on this website:

http://www.dur.ac.uk/collingwood/

Important dates

---------------

For papers:

Paper submission deadline: January 30 2009

Notification of paper acceptance: March 15 2009

Deadline for revised papers: April 15 2009

For posters without paper:

Abstract submission deadline: April 15 2009

Notification of acceptance: May 1 2009

Symposium: July 14-18 2009

Submissions

-----------

Papers can be submitted electronically using the conference website

(http://www.sipta.org/isipta09/).

Programme Committee Board

-------------------------

Thomas Augustin (Ludwig-Maximilians University, Germany)

Frank Coolen (Durham University, UK)

Serafin Moral (Universidad de Granada, Spain)

Matthias Troffaes (Durham University, UK)

Steering Committee

------------------

Thomas Augustin (Ludwig-Maximilians University, Germany)

Frank Coolen (Durham University, UK)

Gert de Cooman (Universiteit Gent, Belgium)

Serafin Moral (Universidad de Granada, Spain)

Teddy Seidenfeld (Carnegie Mellon University, USA)

Matthias Troffaes (Durham University, UK)

Further details

---------------

For further details about (pre)registration, paper submission, scientific and cultural programme, programme committee, please consult the ISIPTA '09 web site at http://www.sipta.org/isipta09/.

Details about previous ISIPTA meetings can be found at

http://www.sipta.org/isipta/.

More information about SIPTA, the international organisation responsible for organizing both the ISIPTA meetings and the SIPTA Schools on Imprecise Probabilities, please consult the SIPTA web site at http://www.sipta.org.

Questions

---------

If you have any questions about the symposium, please contact the Steering Committee preferably by email (frank.coolen@durham.ac.uk or matthias.troffaes@gmail.com), or at the following address:

Frank Coolen / Matthias Troffaes

Department of Mathematical Sciences

Durham University

Science Laboratories, South Road

Durham, DH1 3LE, ENGLAND

## Friday, October 31, 2008

### FEW call for papers

*******************************************************

We are in the process of organizing our sixth annual formal epistemology workshop (the first, second, third, fourth, and fifth workshops were all great successes). The purpose of these workshops is to bring together individuals, both faculty and graduate students, using mathematical methods in epistemology in small focused meetings. Topics treated will include but are not limited to:

* Ampliative inference (including inductive logic);

* Game theory and decision theory;

* Formal learning theory;

* Formal theories of coherence:

* Foundations of probability and statistics;

* Formal approaches to paradoxes of belief and/or action;

* Belief revision;

* Causal discovery.

Besides papers with respondents, each workshop will typically include short introductory tutorials (two or three topically related presentations) on formal methods. These tutorials will be oriented particularly to graduate students.

The sixth workshop is scheduled for June 18 – June 21, 2009 and will be held at Carnegie Mellon University. We are now accepting submissions for FEW 2009. Please send submissions by email to Branden Fitelson. Submissions are due — in the form of full papers — by Sunday, March 15, 2009; notifications of acceptance either as definite presenters or as alternates will be sent out by Thursday, April 30, 2008. Some of the papers presented at FEW 2009 will appear in a special issue of the

Journal of Philosophical Logic.

Those interested in participating, either by presenting papers, responding, or providing tutorials, or in helping with organization, should contact one of the local organizers listed below. We can contribute $500 in travel funds for every graduate student who presents or comments on a paper. We are also able to contribute $250 in travel costs for a number (to be determined) of graduate students who attend the workshop without presenting or commenting on a paper. Priority will

be given to graduate students who have not attended previous workshops, and to women and minorities. Graduate students who wish to be considered for travel funding should contact Kevin Kelly or Richard Scheines (the local organizers this year) by May 1, 2009.

Kevin Kelly

Richard Scheines

CMU

Branden Fitelson

UC-Berkeley

Sahotra Sarkar

UT-Austin

----

NOTE: The FEW website is now located at:

http://fitelson.org/few/

We hope to see you all in Pittsburgh in June!

## Thursday, October 30, 2008

### New course at CUNY

## Thursday, October 23, 2008

### Two talks today in NYC

## Monday, September 29, 2008

### Today, in my mailbox ...

*Epistemology: 5 questions.*It looks great, and I can't wait to read it. Unfortunately I will have to do just that, since other work calls. However, unable to resist a brief look, I stumbled upon the following passage in Timothy Williamson's response to being asked what he regards as the most neglected topics and/or contributions in contemporary epistemology: "The best hope for progress in epistemology lies in the use of methods that have not been part of its stock and trade for centuries. Close to my heart, of course, are the methods of formal epistemology, especially epistemic logic and probability theory. The methods of experimental psychology also promise to shake up comfortable assumptions of belief-forming processes." Seems right to me!

## Friday, September 26, 2008

### Extended Deadline -- First European Graduate School for Philosophy of Language, Mind and Science

*Session 1: Rationality, Consciousness and the Architecture of the Mind10-14 November 2008Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Germany*Keynote Speakers: José Luis Bermúdez (Washington University St. Louis),Peter Carruthers (University of Maryland) and Michael Esfeld (University of Lausanne)

*Session 2: Reasoning and Decision Making17-21 November 2008Tilburg Center for Logic and Philosophy of Science (TiLPS), Tilburg University, The Netherlands*Keynote Speakers: Ulrike Hahn (Cardiff), MichaelPauen (HU Berlin), J.D. Trout (Loyola University Chicago) and Michiel van Lambalgen (University of Amsterdam)"

Additional information can be found here.

### ISIPTA 09 - CALL FOR PAPERS

"The ISIPTA meetings are the primary international forum to present and discuss new results on the theories and applications of imprecise probability.Imprecise probability is a generic term for the many mathematical and statistical models and methods, allowing us to measure chance or uncertainty without the restriction of sharp probabilities. These models include lower and upper expectations or previsions, interval-valued probabilities, convex sets of probability measures, belief functions, Choquet capacities, comparative probability orderings, fuzzy measures, possibility measures, plausibility measures, and sets of desirable gambles. Imprecise probability models are needed in inference and decision problems where the relevant information is scarce, vague or conflicting, and where preferences maybe incomplete."

Additional information about ISIPTA 09, including the call for papers, can be found here.

## Sunday, September 7, 2008

### Addendum to the previous post

NOW AVAILABLE! Epistemology: 5 Questions Edited by Vincent F. Hendricks & Duncan Pritchard ISBN: 978-87-92130-07-5List Price: $38 / £28372 pages New York, London: Automatic Press / VIP Epistemology: 5 Questions is a collection of short interviews based on 5questions presented to some of the most influential and prominent scholars in epistemology. We hear their views on epistemology with particular emphasis on the intersection between mainstream and formal approaches to thefield; the aim, scope, the future direction of epistemology and how their work fits in these respects.

Buy from Amazon

"In your hands, you have a terrific collection of interviews about epistemology by some of the leading contemporary epistemologists. An impressive array of insight, charm, and iconoclastic comments by some of the people who changed the field forever. A must read!" - Otávio Bueno,University of Miami

"Vincent F. Hendricks and Duncan Pritchard have done the epistemology community a big favor: they have elicited revealing personal histories and comments on the state of the field from a variety of the field's leading researchers [...] It is both a snapshot of various influential research trajectories as they stand at the present time, and a collection of tantalizing suggestions for new avenues of research. I recommend it especially to those thinking about the connections between what Hendricks has elsewhere called "mainstream and formal epistemology." - Sanford Goldberg, Northwestern University

"Think of knowledge as a primitive concept, the dynamics of belief, reliable inquiry, social judgment. Think of mainstream epistemology, formal epistemology, scientific epistemology. Think of philosophy crossing with computer science, logic, psychology, sociology. Think of some of the main figures in these fields. Think of a lot of fun. Don't think twice: It's Epistemology: 5 Questions." - Hannes Leitgeb, University of Bristol

"Vincent F. Hendricks and Duncan Pritchard have produced a remarkable volume: the list of 29 interviewees reads like a "who's who" of leading contemporary epistemologists, and by carrying out interviews structured around 5 leading questions, the editors have produced a collection that anyone interested in recent and contemporary debates in epistemology will find both useful and entertaining." - Alexander Miller, University of Birmingham

Preface iii Acknowledgements v1 Horacio Arló-Costa 12 Sergei Artemov 113 Alexandru Baltag 214 Johan van Benthem 395 Luc Bovens 476 Lorraine Code 637 Fred Dretske 798 Pascal Engel 879 Robert J. Fogelin 9510 Richard Fumerton 10511 Clark Glymour 11712 Alvin I. Goldman 12113 Alan Hájek 13914 Joseph Y. Halpern 15515 Sven Ove Hansson 16716 Jaakko Hintikka 17917 Wiebe van der Hoek 18518 Kevin T. Kelly 19119 Hilary Kornblith 21120 Martin Kusch 21721 Jonathan L. Kvanvig 23122 Isaac Levi 24123 Rohit Parikh 25724 John L. Pollock 26725 Krister Segerberg 28326 Ernest Sosa 30527 Wolfgang Spohn 31128 Timothy Williamson 32329 Linda Zagzebski 335

### Epistemology: 5 Questions

## Thursday, September 4, 2008

### Updated LaTeX for Philosophers

## Friday, August 22, 2008

### Intuitionistic mathematics for physics

## Tuesday, August 5, 2008

### Random numbers (for free)

*true randomness*claims on the site, and I suppose that more pedestrian sources abound (e.g. perhaps variation in the time interval between successive beats of your heart), but the site is worth a look.

## Friday, June 27, 2008

### Final CfP: Kyburg Issue of Synthese

## Friday, June 20, 2008

### Ramsey (1929) on distinctions between logic, mathematics, and philosophy

*Philosophical Papers*, seems to place above the likes of Moore, Russell, Whitehead, and Wittgenstein. In any case, if Ramsey intended something along the lines of the former, then his statement strikes me as wrong, at least from a modern view. Sometimes an important mathematical contribution comes in the form of a definition, as the successful isolation of a powerful idea. For example, consider some of the basic definitions from computability theory or, perhaps closer to mathematics proper, some of the fundamental ideas from category theory (e.g. natural transformation, adjoint functor).

## Thursday, June 5, 2008

### An entertaining interview with Clark Glymour

*Epistemology: 5 Questions*, a new collection edited by Vincent Hendricks and Duncan Pritchard.

## Monday, June 2, 2008

### Two PSM related items

## Sunday, May 18, 2008

### Sidney Morgenbesser discussing the American Pragmatists

Section 1

Section 2

Section 3

Section 4

Section 5

## Tuesday, May 13, 2008

### Thanks, but I can read the paper myself.

*... starts to read his paper out loud*. You wonder why you bothered schlepping over to the other side of campus just to hear some guy read his paper, a paper that you could have read yourself at a more convenient time.

## Tuesday, May 6, 2008

### Synthese edits two special issues on the foundations of the decision sciences.

## Saturday, May 3, 2008

### Handbook of Analysis and its Foundations

*automathography*that a good way to learn a lot of mathematics is by reading the first chapters of many mathematics books. Wouldn't it be nice, though, if there was a single book that eliminated the overlapping material such an exercise would entail, included frequent cross-references between topics, and sought to show the connections between various branches of mathematics...and all this between the covers of one volume for around a hundred bucks?

Eric Schechter has written such a book, "The Handbook of Analysis and Its Foundations", Academic Press, 1997.

## Thursday, May 1, 2008

### FotFS VII

http://www.math.uni-bonn.de/people/fotfs/VII/.

Note that the

*submission deadline is July 15*.

## Monday, April 21, 2008

### Maintaining connections with other disciplines

As a mathematical discipline travels far from its empirical source, or still more, if it is a second and third generation only indirectly inspired by ideas coming from "reality" it is beset with very grave dangers. It becomes more and more purely aestheticizing, more and more purely I'art pour I'art. This need not be bad, if the field is surrounded by correlated subjects, which still have closer empirical connections, or if the discipline is under the influence of men with an exceptionally well-developed taste. But there is a grave danger that the subject will develop along the line of least resistance, that the stream, so far from its source, will separate into a multitude of insignificant branches, and that the discipline will become a disorganized mass of details and complexities. In other words, at a great distance from its empirical source, or after much "abstract" inbreeding, a mathematical subject is in danger of degeneration. At the inception the style is usually classical; when it shows signs of becoming baroque, then the danger signal is up. (from "The Mathematician")

Q: What is the difference between a mathematician and a philosopher?A: The mathematician only needs paper, pencil, and a trash bin for his work - the philosopher can do without the trash bin...

## Sunday, April 20, 2008

### What sorts of things should we try to do in this forum?

*do*

*philosophy*of that sort. Can blogging offer something comparable to the areas of philosophy that are of particular concern here?